arrows point slowly the U.S. way, but today Americans will be the first of several generations who will have it tougher than their parents, says chief economist Knut Anton Mork at Handelsbanken Capital Markets.
– We begin to see a generation that has not had a higher standard of living than their parents, quite the opposite, and where social mobility suffers. It is very serious, both socially and bring out talents. Otherwise intelligent children of poor parents have the opportunity, and it becomes fools of daddy boys in higher education will be a problem. For some I’m afraid that the dream becomes a nightmare, says Mork to DN.
– Too early to rejoice
American figures have shown strong despite that several have been characterized by an unusually cold winter. Unemployment draws gradually declined from high levels, the housing market continues to improve and inflation is low. Thursday revised up as the authorities on economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 from 2.4 to 2.7 percent, driven by a consumer adjustment of 0.7 percentage points from the original figures, an increase of 3.3 percent.
Mork believes that it is too early to rejoice, and shows that there is still a significant gap to the growth path before the financial crisis and earlier recovery periods of deep recessions, as in 1974-75 and 1981-82.
– There is something here that takes place not as before. One possibility is a recession associated with a financial crisis, which so far is correct, but Larry Summers’ (American economics professor, hedge funds state and Obama advisor) points is a bit more than that, namely that the only events that have generated growth rates that the United States had the 60 – and 80′s have been bubbles, says chief economist.
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Poverty is increasing
There is also something underlying the current development that is worth keeping your eyes on, says Mork. Very many jobs do not pay much. At the same time, banks have begun to demand repayment of the loan that the Americans took up ten years ago through eating of the values of their homes.
poverty in the world’s largest economy is also far from being eradicated, fifty years after President Lyndon Johnson declared the war. A report from the U.S. Census Bureau in January this year revealed that nearly one in three Americans experienced having lived under the poverty line for at least two months during the global recession between 2009 and 2011. And in 2012 lived 47 million Americans, including 13 million children in poverty.
growing gap between rich and poor affects not only Americans but even burden the U.S. economy, according to a majority of 36 economists Associated Press was contact in December 2013.
– I will not say that all is well, though I am glad to see that it goes ahead as it does, says Mork.
Sure growth
The much criticized unconventional monetary policy by the central bank, where just last year pumped more than 1,000 billion dollars into the market, has actually worked, and given growth without excessive inflation, says economist.
The question is where the growth will come from. The large demand sucked absent because people have less money to spend, and the fear that the future is not as previously envisioned increases.
On the other hand, new technologies provide the basis for investment and earnings gains. Handelsbanken economist points to renewable energy and innovations in battery capacity, as two examples.
– It’s still a bit early and hard to say. We have been pleasantly surprised before the technological advances, but also disappointed, said Mork.
Read also: Mork on Yellen: – Completely echo of Ben Bernanke and – He who saved the world from destruction
– Can help in leveling
Although he is clear that today’s Americans will have lower living standards than their parents, there are also bright spots. Obama’s health care reform has given disadvantaged Americans without jobs right to health insurance, and is believed improve the country’s health situation and employability. This despite the expectation of something apostasy among those who have only been in the job because of the associated health rights, according to Mork.
– I think Obamacare can help any of Equalization, and that the dream will be destroyed of a case of disease, says chief economist.
He appears not for a speedy recovery, but that the U.S. economy will grow slowly, probably at a rate of 2-2.5 percent a year. There will also present challenges for a recent U.S. Federal Reserve, according to Mork, to reduce the stimulus measures without slowing economy.
– Yell task is difficult enough, when she should normalize everything, and knowing now she should take every step and get communicated it without scaring people, he said.
– Faint expectations
Mork supported by investment director Robert Næss at Nordea Investment Management, which looks weak growth in earnings among U.S. firms over the next few years.
– You should be happy if we get a 3.5 percent earnings growth over the next few years , he told DN. partly because earnings are already a record, which has been driven by massive cost cutting, but also because any consumer recovery will be eaten up by higher investment and higher costs through higher wage demands, he notes . At the same time, any improvement in the economy increase interest rates, and thus corporate interest expense. – Faint expectations for growth, and companies have been cautious about costs and cautious about investing. The irony is that with modest expectations so it’s really perfect conditions for companies with low interest rates and limited competition, says Næss. Market expectations of U.S. corporate earnings continues to fall, and was later revised down last week. – It seems that the pattern repeats from last year, when people began to believe in a 12 to 13 percent inntjenningvekst and so it ended up a modest 4.5 percent. It seems like we are on the same road now, says Investment Director. Later this week there will be a number of key indicators from the U.S. economy. Tuesday released the ISM index of activity for the industry, which is seen as a good indicator to reveal changes in economic conditions . Wednesday and Friday afternoon released besides the monthly labor reports. Wednesday’s report from ADP Employer Services, which shows changes in private employment, is seen as an indication of the official and far more comprehensive job report from the government on Friday. Read also: 
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