28,000 as ship party – Fredrikstad Blad

 The total attendances of 28,000 made up of 12,000 people who visited the event one or more days.

 It reaches a count sociologist and researcher Sven Erik Skønberg made for Fredriksstad sheet. It was Skønberg as for Tall Ships Races 2005 wrote spectator report Fredrikstad municipality and the county ordered from Østfoldforskning.

 Read also: Difficult to estimate the correct number of large crowds

 Skønberg On the basis of systematic counts several times daily, and 504 structured interviews with the public, reached the number of visitors and spectators this year.

 - We have spoken every three hours. This is not an estimate, and the accuracy is therefore great, says Skønberg.

 

 Do not believe the numbers I

 Project manager for TSR, Bjørg Johnsrud Western, is currently in Esbjerg, Denmark. Tuesday August 5 concludes this year’s race, and the Tall Ships Races 2014 with the above.

 She has provided the following written feedback on spectator numbers, “TSRF 2014 has no comments on the numbers at this time. Should these figures be taken seriously, it means that during the event days were fewer in the city than a regular 17 May. We solicited feedback from NSB, police, Østfold transit and other actors, and we will summarize the answers. Ultimately, it will still be important value of the experiences and products / services that were realized during the event day. “

  Commentary: City Festival on realistic assumptions

 Do not believe the numbers II

 In the interviews, we asked visitors where they are from by postcode. 58 percent, or six out of ten, came from Fredrikstad, while 18 percent were from Østfold. 20 percent came from other counties and thus, the remaining four percent of tourists from abroad.

 Not surprisingly went ferry numbers in the weather during TSR weekend. From Saturday to Saturday took 16,600 more ferries return, compared with the same period the week before.

 Mayor Jon Ivar Nygård is scarce in his comment.

 - I refer to the Western Bjørg stated. But I think only ferry growth alone indicates that the figure is too low.

  Read also: – Difficult to estimate the number of visitors in large crowds

 

 How did we arrive at the number of visits

 During the Tall Ships Races audiences were spoken several times daily, and 504 visitors were interviewed.

 Fredriksstad sheet dedicated researcher and sociologist Sven Erik Skønberg to conduct the analysis. It is in two parts, with counts made by counting apparatus and interviews.

● Counts: Systematic surveys of the public were conducted throughout the event on the stretch from the ferry port at Cicignon and along the river promenade to Båtbua on Trosvikstranda. First counting started at 9:00 am Saturday and was repeated at 12:00, 15:00, 18:00 and 21:00. Same counts were made Sunday and Monday. At the event’s final day, Sunday, was the last count done at 15.00.

 All persons, including children, were counted. Anyone who stood in line at the stalls or put on temporary food establishments were counted, with the exception of the catering establishment on Dampskipsbrygga and by the fixed nightlife / restaurants. Officials were not counted, and the crews of the ships were tried avoided. In addition to the counts were made spot checks by counting the number of people who passed a certain point at a certain time. We have also made parallel counts where several groups have spoken the same crowd. The difference between the counts is 1.1 percent.

 ● Interviews: We also completed a structured questionnaire. The interviews took place at the footbridge, Kråkerøy bridge, the ferry in Cicignon and Isegran. Just as many were asked at each location. Here we asked if the public postal code (where they are from), as well as how long and how many times they visited the event (frequency). Subjects were selected randomly and were over 15 years. Officials and crews were not interviewed.

● Results: Censuses allow us to say how many people were present on average every hour of every day. But many people were there many times and was counted several times. The interviews provided information about how long and how often each visited TSR, and we can calculate the interval for how often the visitors are “replaced” on the stretch. The results in 9000 were present rain from Saturday at 9.00 and Tuesday at 15,000 on the part of the event that took place on the stretch from the ferry port at Cicignon to Båtbua. We have not counted the visitors of Isegran, Værste, Glommen Jetty and the Old Town, but surveys do we estimate that 70 percent of visitors were on the route which we have spoken. If we increase the number of visitors by 30 percent, giving it a total number of 12,000 unique visitors.

  Difficult to estimate the correct number of large crowds

  It is impossible to give any qualified estimate of the number of people in a crowd, unless one adopts counts, concludes expertise.

 The reason is that we humans simply can not consider large integers. The assessment becomes even more difficult when one must estimate the number of crowds that spread over large land areas, where people anywhere clump together and elsewhere are more scattered.

 As huge crowds gathered in Hong Kong in 2012 to mark the 22 anniversary of the massacre at Tiananmen Square, the number was stated to be both 77,000 and 150,000 people. If the last century had been correct, it would have been four people per square meter. When none of those 150,000 had no ability to move, which is unimaginable, writes the American site Popular Mechanics.

 Technological counting

 The same source tells of a mass political rally in Lincoln Memorial Park in the United States in 2010, where stated organizer and news channel NBC as different numbers 300,000 and 650,000 participants. At the same time news channel CBS hired a company that has developed advanced technology to photographing and counting crowds. 3D cameras that took aerial photos in several different heights, combined with manual count and re-count, was adopted in order to obtain as accurate a figure as possible. The firm’s final conclusion was that 87,000 people attended the meeting.

  Commentary: City Festival on realistic assumptions

 Recommend FB method

 Popular Mechanics writes that aerial counts can estimate crowds of ten percent margin of error, given that the crowds standing still. If they move, as is the case under such Tall Ships Races, must count takes place inside the crowds, so Fredriksstad sheet made during the event in Fredrikstad in July. To further ensure the quality of the figures is emphasized that one also should conduct a survey to FB made with 504 members of the audience on the river promenade.