ECONOMY: SR-bank today unveils Business Barometer for Southern and Western Norway. 600 enterprises in Hordaland, Rogaland and Agder participated in the survey, where one of the main findings is that companies look “quite like” on the prospects for their own business.
The problem is that oil prices have dropped significantly after the investigation was conducted in the period from September to early December. When OPEC Thursday November 27 decided not to cut oil production, raging oil price of a few hours with an additional six dollars.
From a peak of $ 115 a barrel last summer, prices yesterday, Wednesday 7. January and vaket around $ 50.
Bank admits that oil prices fell in the wake of the investigation has led to increased uncertainty about developments in the business in 2015.
- People were characterized
– Is not economic barometer bit outdated now, regional general manager Runar Skarstein?
– No, I will not say. I think people were affected by oil price decline for many months before they answered this.
He also shows the reduced rate of investment, as was predicted long before oil prices began their downward trend.
Enterprise Survey, as it stands, displays a number of bright spots. For example, enterprises more employees and increased sales. The various branches also had similar views on expectations for years.
The study also shows that increased uncertainty already at the time reflected in more muted investments in 2015. On the plus side will export businesses who benefit greatly from the currency situation.
Economic Barometer also points out that government spending provides tailwind and steerage.
Lowest since 2009
A few days ago came Hordaland with its own industry barometer, the county, Nav, NHO and Innovation Norway is behind. Hordaland is somewhat less affected by oil decline than Rogaland.
Nevertheless, the neighboring county to the north that the turbulence in the oil industry has left its mark on the business community in Oslo, where expectations are the lowest since the financial crisis.
With the exception of trade, falling expectations in all industries in Hordaland county writes in a press release.
Yesterday was regional director in SR-Bank present during Skagen New Year conference in Oslo. Where was the world’s most significant economist, according to the New York Post, economics professor Jeffrey D. Sachs of Columbia University Earth Institute, one of the speakers.
Sachs, which has been an advisor to the UN Secretary General, is concerned climate, and is quoted as saying that Norway must allow oil and gas lie, and use technology for other purposes.
While pointing Skarstein that the cyclical barometer for Southern and Western Norway shows that business here is more than just oil.
During Skagen conference in Oslo yesterday, he was witness to foreigners headed that we in Norway call this “crisis”, a situation any other country wish they had normal situation.
Two-division erased
Asked what he sees as the big picture here west in January 2015, according Skarstein to dichotomy we’ve seen in the Norwegian economy in almost ten years, where the oil and gas industry has accelerated from rest of the economy, both in terms of rate of investment, hiring and compensation. This is about to be reversed.
– Something that is equally important; By magic has traditional, capital-intensive export-oriented Norwegian industry has become much more competitive. Ten years wage growth in the Norwegian economy has now made that industry that does not belong to the oil and gas sector has been little competitive. This part of our economy, which despite everything we have part of our region, have much greater faith in the prospects than they had just a half years ago.
Skarstein is still not assured that it gets so into eternity. When one has with large size currency and oil to do, things can change quickly.
– But I do not think we should use the word crisis before we can justify the word. And so we will of course have an understanding of those who are affected by structural changes and unemployment. On a human level, this is very tough for the individual.
– From a macro perspective, it may be a bit scruffy, but I do not think we should use the word crisis before we can look at housing prices, unemployment and that type of thing, which affects the individual harder than what we see today.
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