In two weeks, the climate circus characterized Peru’s capital Lima. 12,531 retailers, environmentalists, experts and journalists from 196 countries have danced the annual ritual climate dance:
“Action now.”
“No!”
“Jo ! “
Strong words and accusations from the pulpit. Long meetings in closed rooms. Alliances. Requirements, anger and frustration.
But for the first time in a long time, there is a glimmer of optimism in the air when this very special gang traveling home from Lima today. Optimism from business and political leaders during the New York summit earlier this fall seems to be moving too in where it is really serious, including agreement negotiators.
– Many sacrifices his life
Summit got crystal clear message from thousands Limas streets. An eclectic mix of indigenous Amazonian, climate activists from Europe and USA, drums from Africa and Buddhist monks from the Himalayas demanded action now in the largest climate mobilization ever on South American soil.
An old lady with bowler hat from the Andes grabs me in arm. Son translator. “You, journalist from the rich world, tell your manager urgency. Glaciers our has melted, we no longer have enough water. “
A powerful demonstration in a part of the world where it is dangerous to be an activist. Just this year is more than fifty environmental and indigenous activists killed in Peru, most of cartels engaged in unlawful timber extraction and gold mining. Indigenous leader José Isidro Tendetza Antunes of Shuarfolket in Ecuador was found murdered a week ago. He was on his way out of the rainforest to speak at the Lima meeting when someone took his life. “Tell him,” says a spokeswoman. “The world must know that many sacrifices his life.”
Requirements of powerful men
The global climate negotiations has been like a Gordian knot in the last two decades. A knot that now may be about to dissolve, primarily by two powerful men with a slightly frayed political reputation and with a violent need to improve their reputation.
One is the president of the United States . Barack Obama has not only managed to get along China on a sensational climate compromise. He has also given its Secretary John Kerry told to use American influence for all it’s worth in all world capitals in the coming year. Obama will have a climate treaty signed in Paris about a year. Sentence.
It is Thursday afternoon. Negotiations are deadlocked, as always when there remains only hours of a summit. The diplomats sweating and shaking his head. Then comes John Kerry. Waving to photographers, meets a crammed news conference. With television transmission to any room throughout the summit and further out into the world. Before came American foreign ministers to talk down the climate threat, saying that they will not do anything. But Kerry thunders:
“The time to reverse course we are on is about to run out. We still rules against tragedy. Window to avoid it, rapidly closing. “
He said that all countries must with. “Although the United States or China stops all emissions tomorrow, it would not be enough.” “All countries, all the countries have a responsibility to do their part.” Says Kerry and equate coping with terrorist threat, global epidemics and the spread of nuclear weapons.
“An agreement in Paris does not solve everything, but it will put us on the right track.” For three quarters he keeps a fierce speech, saying thank you and go. The press conference breaks out in strong applause. It is rare.
The French host
French President François Hollande is the second gentleman who must prepare his own reputation. He is the host for next year’s climate summit in Paris. A tanned diplomat says this is Holland last opportunity for an international political victory that could shed some luster over a miserable presidency. He has given similar marching orders to the French diplomat corps as Obama has done: Paris Agreement shall box!
And on top of this is China’s President Xi Jinping evidently a pragmatic man who has understood that he must do something with its explosive emissions growth – although he clutching that it is the old industrial countries have historical emissions responsible for climate change.
Certainly not in box
I run through the motley crowd of suits, pleated skirt and Indians in “Little Pentagon” – the military camp on the outskirts of Lima where the climate summit is about to end. People of all shades. It’s a long time since 1990, when I made my debut as a journalist at the climate summit in Geneva where Margaret Thatcher shouted from the pulpit that climate change is man-made and must be solved immediately.
Unimaginable many political klimaord said since then. Annual emissions have increased by more than 50 percent. A tower of documents are written and negotiated. Meetings here to eternity.
Something few highs, most downs. But something is different now.
On a lawn between the huge conference tents sits Norwegian Climate and Environment Tine Sundtoft at a table with his counselors. A few minutes free between meetings with various countries. It’s lunchtime. Mass sliced fruit and fresh juice.
“Yes, I perceive a completely different feel than just a year ago,” she says. “There is a greater understanding and agreement that emissions must be reduced. More, also China, feel climate change on the body. ” “And it is no longer science fiction to be a technology optimist. Who had a few years ago believed they could drive electric vehicle 50 mil without charge. “
Science says that it is even more abrupt. Real climate change is detected around the globe. New technology is cheaper and better. Hundreds of thousands have participated in climate marches in the great cities fall. 400,000 in New York in September, 20,000 in the colorful fireworks in Lima this week.
Still, characterized the climate negotiations still of old conflicts, and that many seem to have very good time. Zero stress.
Bearings roadmap
Climate Conference plenary hall can accommodate more than a thousand people, a kind of mini version of the UN General Assembly, just in a huge tent that Peru has actually been driven through the Amazon from Brazil. Reuse of the football World Cup!
It’s dark in here, a little gloomy. In one half, all 196 countries their table with seating for three to four delegates, the back there are chairs in a row for the press and others. Countries get word of a carefully planned sequence. Here is often used strong words. Some, like Bolivia’s President Evo Morales, tend to use the occasion to a general attack on capitalism, while others, such as climate minister Tine Sundtoft, urging the world to come with so precise national climate promises as possible. So that they can be compared, and it can be calculated if the promises are enough to limit global warming to 2 degrees. Australia reiterated that they would rather not have any agreement on anything.
Each day proclaim Climate Action Network, an umbrella of environmental organizations around the world, today’s “fossil villain,” the country that is most destructive in the negotiations. Of ten possible days Australia has gained the dubious honor four times. This is a record.
In smaller rooms and small meeting negotiated on specific texts. In Lima it negotiated Two: A Lima Declaration, a kind roadmap for the way forward to Paris, and on a first “proposed draft” of what will become the Paris Agreement. Negotiations often a lot about how to be negotiated. Both documents are initially chock full of alternative formulations. Gradually ironed and adjusted it until something everyone can accept. Most often, no very pleased with the result – some seem text goes too far, others that it is too weak.
In parallel with the formal progress a number of meetings between groups of countries that attempt to align themselves to stand stronger against the rest: the Nordic, the 132 developing countries, alliances of countries almost think the same, island nations, countries who would rather not anything etc.
The huge tent with countries Delegation offices this year for the first time been closed to the press, but Norwegian retailers release us in anytime. So, we can snoop and chat a bit there too.
An American dress dressed gang urgency into the United States large office, stressed French ladies me a strange look from France’s door. Into the Norwegian trains Nordic environment ministers for coordination and exchange news. There is no official news bulletin. Here goes everything from mouth to mouth. It is important to know. Norwegian negotiator Aslak brown whispers something in the ear Tine Sundtoft.
In 20 years there has been little progress in the climate negotiations. Now something happens.
20 years of conferences and endless meetings. Why is it so slow?
One answer is that climate negotiations taking place in UN auspices. This means that all countries, regardless of size, have an equal right to speak. All agreements shall be adopted by consensus, ie unanimously. It takes time when 192 countries to say what they think about any sentence, any comma.
There is much mistrust. When the UNFCCC was adopted in Rio in 1992 it was decided that the countries have the historical responsibility for climate change, that it is they who should cut emissions and that they should pay for any both emission reductions and adaptation in developing countries. This division of the world has been a hindrance for 20 years afterwards.
A new world
Since I put on Rios Beach and wrote home about this breakthrough for a fairer distribution policy, the world totally changed: China has become the world’s largest carbon and soon largest economy. Singapore, Saudi Arabia and Mexico nor can hardly be called developing countries. And the world’s developing countries are now emitting more greenhouse gases than the old industrialized countries do.
So, to a new deal affect all countries must do something – cut or slow emissions.
And the old industrialized countries can not take the whole bill. Developing countries still insists in countries should pay part. It has helped some of the mood that the green climate fund, which will be sponsoring mitigation in poor countries, last week passed $ 10 billion – but there is no jubilation and it has not removed distrust. Developing countries are still terrified of anything that could slow their economic development.
Countries that do not believe in anthropogenic climate threat, also contributes to the inertia. Australia, to a certain extent Canada and the oil-producing Arab states, Venezuela and Algeria often do what they can to coaches.
Volunteers promises
But why is it some movement right now?
The Great Powers United States and China, which has long denied any liability, have come with their voluntary pledges. US Pledges 26-28 percent emission cuts by 2025, China will stop its emissions growth by 2030.
Political pressure from these two might push most into the fold during the next year.
And, not least, the level of ambition for a global agreement is lowered many notches.
noncommittal
How is the level of ambition lowered?
Until recently, one negotiating a legally binding agreement in which all countries imposed a quantified emission reductions. It has proved completely impossible to achieve. Last one tried, in Copenhagen in 2009, it ended with humiliating failure. Many, but especially the major economies, are terrified to relinquish sovereignty.
Now, one tries instead on a somewhat general agreement text, and that the countries instead of an addition know what to do – without promises is the subject of negotiations in plenary.
Some people think this is too noncommittal, others think that 20 years of bickering without progress is enough and that it is better with something than nothing
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